TSPwire Blog

16-Aug: TSPwire Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 06:59:00 GMT

G Fund 40% I Fund 30% C Fund 15% S Fund 15% Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor! We hope that you followed our allocation and enjoyed the rally. Since March 9th S Fund went up 30%, C Fund 50% and I Fund finished Friday trading day at 65%. Sooner or later marker will have to go through a correction (i.e. at least 10% temporary drop). In order to take some earnings off the table and protect portion of our funds against potential correction we'd like to move 40% of our holdings into G Fund. There are some other things that indicate that this rally is running out of steam. A surprisingly shaky reading of consumer confidence took a toll on stocks, sparking a selloff this Friday that pushed major indicators into the red for the week. Most of the Friday's market losses came after the release of the latest Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment. The measure fell to 63.2 in August from 66 in July. Analysts' consensus expectation was for a rise in the index to 68.5. This week we'd like to re-balance our portfolio as follows: 40% in G Fund, 30% in I Fund, 15% in C Fund and 15% in S Fund. If rally will keep going, great. But at some point there’s going to be a correction. Then you’ll be glad you’re sitting on some "cash".

19-Apr: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 04:31:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

Modest gains sealed a six-weak winning streak for stocks as investors breathed a sigh of relief that earnings reports and consumer sentiment were better than expected. Although there were concerns that earnings would puncture the recent stock-market rally, reports so far have encouraged those who believe the economy and financial system are tentatively finding their feet.

The SP 500 (C Fund) rose 0.5% on Friday finishing week 1.5% up. The Russel 2000 (S Fund) finished week up 2.39%.

Treasury (F Fund) and gold prices fell as economic and earning news favored stocks. Gold fell 1.7% for the week, a fourth straight weekly drop.

For the next week we will keep our allocations at the same level 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

Cyios Corporation (Stock ticker: CYIO)

ee@tspwire.com — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 03:35:00 GMT

Guys, if you invest in individual stocks, check out Cyois Corporation. ($0.12 per share as of 16-Apr-2009)

I stumbled over this company few weeks ago and did some research on it. Bottom line is that you have to jump on this stock as soon as possible!!! And this is why:

1. Last year Cyios went through a major make-over. They hired a financial management company to take care of their financial reporting and investors’ relationship. They also got a very good contract proposal writer that managed to secure a $175mln contract with FBI and added couple more pending awards (from US Army and DHS) to Cyios’s pipeline. At this point even if they will not win any new contracts in 2009 they should earn about 0.19 – 0.21 per share (EPS) which leads me to the second point.

2. This stock is currently trading at less than 1:1 ratio of current price vs expected 2009 EPS!!! This is insanely discounted valuation! Usually mature “cash cow” companies in this field are trading at least at 8:1 multiple (note: small and growing companies are even higher than that). Anyway even if we’ll use conservative 8:1 ration and 2009 EPS projection of 0.19 – 0.21 that would mean that CYIO should be trading at least at $1.6 per share (i.e. more than 10x times of its current prices).

3. Last but not least – this company is not covered by analysts so somehow this stock managed to stay away from day-traders’ radar.

P.S. According to their conference call, Cyios will report profit in its 2009 Q1 (note: 1st time in several years). Because of the FBI contract, that they recently won, 2009 Q2 will be even more profitable.

P.P.S. Note for my Army brothers and sisters - That’s the company that created our AKO portal.

29-Mar: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 06:34:00 GMT

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I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

Stocks ended a third consecutive week of gains with a broad decline as drop in oil prices hurt energy companies and financial stocks fell after a bank executive said business this month has been tougher than earlier in this year. The SP 500 index (C Fund) fell 2% on Friday but ended week up 6.2%.

For the past three weeks, small-caps have been on a tear, with Russell 2000 (S Fund) tacking on 25% - a bull market, by one common definition. A gain in small-cap stocks is typically a reflection of more steadfast belief in the economy, but many investors say they are still only getting into securities they can get out of easily, such as exchange-traded funds and most liquid of companies.

For the next week we'd like to keep our allocation at the same level: 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

15-Mar: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:01:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

The stock market rose Friday to cap its best week since November, as scattered bits of good news from shopping malls to metal markets gave some reason to believe that the economy may be getting closer to a bottom. After falling to its lowest level in 12 years on Monday, the SP 500 stock index (C Fund) finished about 11% up for the week.

Most small-capitalization stocks gained Friday, led by the health-care sector, snapping a four-week losing streak. S Fund finished 14% up for the week.

Most Asian markets ended the week on a buyout note Friday, with Financials piggybacking on an extended rally in U.S. stocks. Energy-related shares rose on firm crude oil prices. In Europe, banks established the pace for a broad based advance as the pan-European index gained 6% for the week. I Fund finished 9% up this week.

Consumers are still cutting back, but not as steeply as they were, data showed this week. Many retailers have reduced inventories on their shelves to the point that any pickup in demand will force them to restock. Prices for copper and scrap steel are rising, a hint that manufacturers are buying again. Oil prices are up 23% in the past four weeks, a sign demand may be firming.

Still, most economists say the U.S. economy will shrink at a very steep 5% annual rate or so in the current quarter, which ends March 31st, and that it will continue to contract at a more modest pace in the second quarter.

For the next week we'd like to keep our allocation at the same level: 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

22-Feb: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 05:01:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

Fear continued to grip the stock market to end the worst week in more than four months, while investors sent gold prices to near records. Traders feared for the worst Friday afternoon. Some had to settle expiring options bets, a process that often adds volatility, while others were on guard against political news that might break over the weekend while markets are closed. Financial stocks continued to decline amid talk of bank nationalizations, although the Obama administration tried to quash the speculation.

Decliners outpaced advancers by about three to one among stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was heavy with more than eight billion shares changing hands.

The Standard & Poor 500 stock index (C Fund) fell 1.1% after coming within three points of its November 20th low during the day. C Fund was off 6.9% for the week.

The Russell index closed 8.3% down for the week. Market sentiment still seemed to get its cue from the financial sector as chatter about potential nationalization of big-name firms loomed.

Treasury prices (F Fund) also rose Friday, sending yields lower.
Markets ended sharply lower in Asia and Europe (I Fund) on Friday, with financials among the worst performers as investors fretted about contracting economies.

Oil futures slipped 1.4% to $38.94 a barrel, though the price rose 3.8% for the week.

The US Dollar fell sharply Friday as investors booked profits on gains earlier in the week. The dollar decline was more technical than fundamental. The reverse began when euro dipped to $1.265, a key technical level at which many traders and hedge funds had orders to buy the 16-nation common currency. With many traders positioned in favor of the dollar at the beginning of the session, the selling quickly drove the euro to one-week high near $1.29 from the three-month low just above $1.25.

"the only way to get hurt on roller coaster is to jump off!" (c) Dave Ramsey. We choose to keep our fund allocation the same and lower our cost basis.
For the next week we will keep our allocations at the same level 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

16-Feb: TSP Weekly Allocatin Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 03:04:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

Stocks ended the worst week in nearly three months with a decline, as bank stocks again dragged down the broader market. The S&P 500 (C Fund) was down 4.8% for the week, also it's worst performance since the week ended November 21st. "The market is telling us it doesn't have confidence that what they (i.e. Washington) is doing to get us out of the morass," said James D. Baer, managing member at Uhlmann Price Securities in Chicago.

The Russell 2000 index on Friday finished down 0.5%, closing out the week down 4.8%. Small-cap traders continue to bet against a recovery in banking stocks. For the fifth time in six weeks, small stocks (S Fund) finished below where they started. Friday, small banking stocks led the decline, as they did in the previous down weeks.

International stocks (I Fund) behaved much better than US stocks last week. Chinese stocks rose Friday, lifting the benchmark index to a 5 1/2 month closing high and adding to the luster of Shanghai as the world's best-performing market this year. In Europe, Russian stocks extended gains to end the week up 19% as relative stability in the ruble and oil prices lured overseas funds. Japanese shares also advanced as a weekend yen boosted exporters.

For the next week we also would like to re-balance our portfolio. That way we'll sell portion of our "winners" (i.e. I Fund) and buy "losers" (i.e. C & S Funds) at cheaper price. For the next week we will keep our allocations at the same level 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

01-Feb: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:08:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

For stock market, 2009 began much as 2008 ended. Standard and Poor 500 (C Fund) and Russell 2000 (S Fund) posted their biggest January losses on record.

The financial sector remains the pivotal axis for the market, because traders believe economic and stock-market stability are not possible until fears about solvency of banks have receded. Financial stocks slid Friday after CNBC reported that the latest bank rescue from the Treasury Department may have stalled in planning stages.

The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke has already cut the federal-funds interest-rate target to as low as it can be, hovering near 0%, so at the past week’s meeting there was no rate cut. Investors remain wary overall.

This past week was full of grim news and we selfishly hoping that stock markets will stay at this depressed level for a while so we could build up our positions at such bargain prices. We will keep our allocations at 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

25-Jan: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 02:34:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

The Standard and Poor 500 index (C Fund) rose 0.5% on Friday, off 2.1% for the week. It was helped Friday by a 3.8% gain in its financial sector, which nevertheless ended with a full-week decline of 7.1%. SP 500 bounced back several times as they approached their November 20th bear-market lows, but remained down nearly 8% in 2009.

Asian and European shares (I Fund) closed lower, ending a downbeat week. In Europe, sharp losses in bank and insurance shares helped pull down major indexes.

Energy and financial companies help lead small caps (S Fund) higher Friday, though continued concern about the economic outlook muted both sectors' gains. On broad basis, Friday's move pointed to some negative sentiment toward small stocks. Defensive sectors such as health care and utilities slid, while the beaten-down financial and energy names led most of the gains. Overall, the small-cap index (S Fund) underperformed the larger SP 500 (C Fund) once again for the week and remained lower for the last month, three months and 52 weeks.

Overall fundamentals of our valuations did not change - all stock funds (i.e. C, S & I Funds) are available at very attractive prices. Buy! Buy! Buy! We would like to set our new allocation at 25% S Fund, 25% C Fund and 50% I Fund.

19-Jan: TSP Weekly Allocation Alert

ee@tspwire.com — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 06:00:00 GMT

I Fund	C Fund	S Fund
50%	25%	25%

Good afternoon, TSPwire Tactical Investor!

Stocks ended a turbulent week with a second consecutive day of modest gains, despite another drubbing for big banks. SP 500 (C Fund) rose 0.8% on Friday, though it was down 4.5% for the week. Some traders said they were reluctant to buy until the stock market can rally on improving economic data rather than new government assistance to banks.

Continued concern over prospects for a stalled banking system led small-stock (S Fund) investors to sell industrial stocks, while even the buying suggested economic fears remain front and center. International stocks (I Fund) logged first gain in 8 days. European shares rose Friday for the first time in eight sessions, with banks and oil producers standing out, as renewed efforts to shore up the financial sector bolstered sentiment. Asian markets also finished higher, recovering some of the ground lost in previous session, although most still ended the week lower.

The euro gained ground against the dollar and the yen as risk appetite returned to global financial markets after U.S. government extended its efforts to support the banking sector. But common currency failed to sustain its early Friday gains, as investors turned cautious ahead of the long weekend.

Treasuries were lower Friday but off their worst levels as government stepped up its already aggressive efforts to aid the financial system and get the economy back on track.